Light snow over next few days; otherwise quiet weather

The pattern for Michigan will remain quiet for the most part. Most locations will see light snow over the next couple days due to a system passing to our southeast. The models tend to be in agreement that a relatively strong low will shift off to the east coast bringing them a decent snowfall for some areas.

As this system misses us, we'll return to the models and look towards next week. There's a chance of accumulating snow with at least two more systems in the next week or two, however, its' too far out to tell where they'll go to. For the time being the GFS and GFS Ensembles are taking them off the east coast, but, there's plenty of time for that to change.

We'll keep you posted with the next few chances for snow as the next several days go by.

Merry Christmas! Quiet weather moving our way

It's been an eventful past few days and with Christmas and all kinds of stuff going on, I apologize for the lack of updating.

Overall Michigan was spared by this system. We had a brief period of freezing rain to the north, which melted fairly quickly as temps rose fairly fast as we headed into the afternoon. The rain poured for much of the day, especially in the Metro Detroit area.

However, not everyone was spared.

The Midwest was slammed hard with blizzard-like conditions. Over a foot of snow fell in numerous locations and portions of I-90 were closed for much of the day. Thousands lost power on account of both the snow and ice.

Thankfully, the system is all but over now. Some light wrap-around snow is expected for Mid-Michigan, while back west blowing snow will be a problem for the next day or so, but as far as additional accumulation, it is unlikely.

A Winter WX Advisory has been posted by GRR for the overnight, as there is the chance for light freezing drizzle and light snow which may slicken up the roadways.

Overall we will move into a fairly quiet period as we head into the next several days. High pressure will take over, however as we head into the middle of the week we can expect another shot at a large storm. The models are taking it well east of us, and possibly up the Appalachians. As far as I'm concerned I believe it's way too far out to tell right now, and it won't be for another few days before we get a handle on this. Remember, the past two storms have shifted a great deal north and west. However, the amount of phasing that occurs in this system will play a big role on where it goes.

Happy Holidays everyone, look for more updates tomorrow.

Christmas storm a dud for much of Michigan

For all of those hoping and expecting a white Christmas for Michigan, well, you can quit hoping. The current storm we've been tracking for about a week now has finally made a decision on the track.

We've nailed this down for the most part. The low will end up moving west, even west of Chicago. For the most part, this was a giant fail, but, is this a sign of things to come? Will much of the rest of the winter season bring storm and storm after this? Will the Detroit area ever get a decent snowfall? Of course, all of those questions cannot be answered, because the only correct forecast is...well, there is no correct forecast, so we can only use our best judgment from the models and trends and see what comes from them.

So, let's break down this storm.

Detroit will see mostly rain. You'll start out with snow or a brief mix, then quickly change over to a chilly rain. On the back side of the system, an inch or dusting is possible, but for the most part, it will be a rainy Christmas holiday.

Chicago, well, there's more potential. It won't be a complete washout, however, some people might wake up Christmas morning and find their streets and sidewalks to be more like ice rinks. A mix bag of precip is expected, with a period of ice, which could accumulate up to 0.25"

Points west of Chicago, like into Iowa and Nebraska, will see all snow, infact, they will see blizzard like conditions for much of the storm. If you have any plans to travel to the Midwest, be sure to call ahead to your airliner, because there is a pretty good chance a lot of flights will be delayed.

The system still has the chance to make minor shifts, however, any major shifts are pretty much out of the picture, even though the storm is still a couple days out.

Join us again tomorrow. We'll talk more about this storm and try to nail down accumulations and get into talk about the long-term forecast past this system, so hopefully much of us Michiganders can see some snow in the next couple weeks.

Powerful storm to affect Midwest near Christmas

The powerful storm we've been watching has finally chosen a solution; and it's west. Rather than the east coast runner like the models were showing for several days, the models have all decided it will take a track through, or near, Chicago. This means mostly rain for Detroit and the eastern subarbs of Chicago. On the west side of the storm, a mix, ice, and heavy snow will be possible. Much of mid and northern Michigan will also stay all rain as the low will track up through Lake Superior.

We're still watching the models as there is still the possibility of another shift, either further west or east, and the next few runs of the GFS and then the NAM tomorrow, will be the outlier for where the system ends up.

At this time it is too early to call on what kind of snow accumulations will take place, so we'll have to continue to monitor the situation as needed.

Note: The map posted is preliminary. This is based on the latest models and what they are showing. Being 4+ days out still, there is a likelihood of small shifts.

Quiet weekend; storm looming for Christmas?

A relatively quiet weekend is on the way. Other than a few chances for light snow showers due to a weak low passing to our southeast, we'll be partly to mostly cloudy with temps sticking in the low 30s.

However, following the weekend we turn to next week, where we've been talking about a potential Christmas Snowstorm. Over the past several days, all of the computer models have hopped on bored showing a strong low pressure developing over the Mississippi Valley region, then heading anywhere from the east coast, to as far west as Minnesota. Over the past 24 hours the models have certainly jumped around, and at this point really anything can happen. It looks like the only guarantee at this point is that some place will end up having a white Christmas.

Many expert Meteorologists have already started to "guess" that this one is heading further east. History shows that the Midwest and Great Lakes sometimes lack late-December snow, and that a storm like this will tend to track east due to suppression starting later in the storm. Along with that, cold arctic air will be in place which could push the storm towards the east coast in the ridge digs enough.

Above is a suggestion of where this system may go. NOTE: This map is due to change, this is just a preliminary map, using combined knowledge of the GFS and GFS Ensembles; along with their latest shifts over the past 24 hours.

Quiet weather for several days

Kind of a boring post today. Not a lot to talk about, as our weather will be pretty quiet for the next 7+ days. There will be a chance of snow showers for the next week, due to the winds whipping up every now and then off of Lake Michigan, but overall, no big snow events on the way. The cause of this is a large arctic high pressure system dropping down from Alaska. It has just moved into the plains and will reach Michigan by Friday. This is the main factor in cutting down on the lake effect snows. Also, our temperatures will linger in the 20s for the next several days. To the side is a preview of temps for Friday going into the weekend.

There is also very low confidence in the long range. A few short-wave lows will pass through the region, but will cause nothing but light lake effect snow showers into early next week. It looks like our next chance for any decent snowstorms won't come until near or just past Christmas.

Winter Weather Advisory North; light rain south

A WWA has been posted for posting from Mount Pleasant north. Overall, the afternoon will be kind of a mess. We'll see light freezing drizzle in the advisory region, following by an inch or two of snow later tonight. To the south of the advisory, we'll see light rain/drizzle throughout the day. No icing is expected there because temps will stay above freezing for much of the afternoon and evening.

All in all, if you need to travel at all tonight, take it easy and allow yourself extra time to get from place to place.

After this small disturbance moves through, quiet weather will build in. The models still aren't showing much for the long term outlook. Our next chance for snow will be into late this weekend, and following that, into next week near Christmas Day. The GFS is showing an intense storm system forming which, currently, would roll through the plains and up the east coast. Obviously, this is a long way out so deciding on any solution for this storm is nearly impossible. We'll keep an eye on it throughout this week and hopefully by this weekend we will have a better handle on what will happen into next week.

Monday Night Snow Chance

A weak disturbance will pass through the southern portion of the state Monday night and into Tuesday. This will bring us a brief chance for some snow. From about Isabella County north all the way into the UP, a chance of 1-2" of snow lingers, with isolated spots see 3" or 4". Only between 0.20-0.30 QPF is expected within this system, so using a normal 10:1 ratio, those are the totals we would be expecting.

Quiet weather moves in after Tuesday, while temps will remain in the mid 20s for much of the week. As of right now no big storms seem to be showing up, so, there's not much to talk about in todays update. As we head towards Christmas, we few systems are showing up on the GFS, but as of right now it's way too far out to tell if they'll turn into anything, so we'll just have to keep following and watching them.

Weak system to affect area tonight and tomorrow

Overall, we won't be in too much of an active pattern over the next week. There will be a few weak disturbances that move through, but nothing too powerful and there is very low chance of accumulating snow over the next week.

Tonight, a upper level low will move across the southeastern portion of the station, causing a mixed bag of precip, including rain, freezing rain, a brief mix, and a chance of light snow. The Detroit area will primarily stay all rain, with a brief period of snow on the backside of the storm. Much of mid-Michigan will stay all snow, however, lack of advection and moisture being shot into this storm will keep snow totals very low. Temperatures being in the mid 30s won't help the cause either. At this time the NAM has brought the storm further south than the GFS, but it looks like it should pass through the Toledo area or just southeast of there.

As we move past the weekend and look into next week, there will be the chance of a few systems to move in. The track of these storms are all uncertain at this time, and it looks like our best shot for snow will be a clipper system later this week.

The GFS is hinting at a storm forming in the Gulf into next weekend, however, there are no signs currently that it will affect the area.

Stay tuned to the blog for daily updates of Central Michigan weather. Tomorrow, we'll look into the long-range models.

Storm Looming for late next week??

Weather will be quiet for the most part across Mid-Michigan for the next week. Some short-wave disturbances do have a chance to make a run towards the Great Lakes, however, for the time being there isn't much evidence to show for any chance of a substantial winter storm.

Our next chance for snow/mix will be Sunday, as a weak wave of low pressure will track through southeastern lower Michigan. The GFS and NAM both pump out hardly any moisture with the storm, however, the NAM does show slightly more than the GFS. Ahead of the storm, some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will build in and advect, causing a warm layer of air. This most likely will lead to only rain or a mix for much of the area. Depending on the exact track of this system, some of Mid-MI could see only a few snow pellets or rain drops, so, the likelihood of any snow is very low. Temperatures will easily increase as we head into tonight and tomorrow, moving from the teens currently, to the lower 30's for tomorrow and the rest of the weekend.

Following this weak disturbance we look towards late next week when a Alberta Clipper will move into the Great Lakes. As of right now there is little confidence on this system, so, we'll just have to wait and see how it plays out.

Short and Long Term Outlook - December 10th

The latest computers are not putting out the type of storm we possibly expected for late this weekend. A lack of moisture and phasing will most likely lead to only light snow across much of the viewing area, therefore our optimism level is down to a 2/10 for this storm.

Following that we will look into next week as the same pattern should be in place. We'll be keeping out eyes open on the models watching for any signs of additional storms. There is the chance sometime mid-next week that a upper level low will move it's way out of the western US. For now, only time will tell.

Recap of December 12th Midwest Blizzard

As most already know, this was an epic storm. Some areas were hit hard as expected, some were spared. Overall, much of the immediate Mid-Michigan area was not in the worst part of this storm, seeing only around 4-8". The reason I note this as not being that bad, is because areas north and west saw upwards of a foot of snow. Reports from near Madison, WI came in stating they received nearly 17" of snow.

This storm was so strong mainly because of the flow between the northern and southern streams. This caused quite a bit of phasing which lead to a large influx of moisture into this storm. The tracking of this storm was the worst part. The uncertainty was still floating in the air come Monday night, but finally, the GFS and NAM both got on bored with a more westerly and northerly track. The crazy thing about this storm is that it's showing viewers that even the Meteorologists don't know exactly what to expect. Earlier in the week, the storm was actually being sent to the east coast on the models.

Detroit escaped with a brief period of snow, followed by mostly rain. The same was there for much of the greater Chicago area.

Even though the storm has moved well off to our east, we're not finished yet with snow. Areas near Lake Michigan and as far east as Lansing and the outside areas of the Metro Detroit area could see anywhere from 2-6" of additional snowfall tonight and into early tomorrow. Winds will be strong, and power outages will be possible, with gusts as high as 60mph, which will cause widespread blowing and drifting during much of the day tomorrow.

Travel is not advised; roads will and already are, becoming slick and icy. This will continue through much of the day on Thursday until Friday when things finally dry out some.

Then, our attention turns to late this weekend. The GFS and NAM are both hinting at a possible winter storm for the area once again. Models are currently showing the storm building in the south and running up the the east coast, but due to recent factors, the northern and southern stream along with high pressure building in the northern plains, may cause this storm to drift further north and east. Along with that, arctic air will already be in place which would cause another shift.

As of now, we'll put the optimism level at about a 5 on a scale of 10. The next few days will be crucial in determining where the system moves. Nevertheless, this proves that the first forecasts for this winter may have been wrong, and that many storms may ride up the Ohio Valley and affect areas further west, rather than the east coast.