SUNDAY UPDATE: Long Range thoughts

Still watching the very long range, as model consistency is showing a storm sometime around late next weekend and into early next week. For now, it looks like there's a good chance for rain for much of the area, with some rap-around snow, but there's still a lot of time for the models to change, and they have been very inconsistent with the ending result of where the LP actually ends up going.

The GFS has been running it pretty quickly, and has been breaking down the high and ridge much quicker, which is the main cause of why it been pushing the LP so far west. The runs over the next 4-5 days will definitely start showing where the storm will go, and I would say there's a chance for anything yet.

FRIDAY UPDATE: Long Range getting interesting?

We'll see light snow continue through the weekend as a huge storm system sits off to our east. That storm is responsible for dropping up to 3 ft of snow in parts of NY, NJ, and many other states. It's bad news for many cities which have seen up to 6 ft of snow in the past month, breaking tons of records.

Back towards our area the light snow will continue. Most spots have seen anywhere from 1-3" today, with another inch or so likely through the overnight and into tomorrow. For that reason, a Winter Weather Advisory has been posted for most of the GRR viewing area. The snow from today, along with light snow throughout the night and winds kicking up, will likely cause a rough commute for the morning. Off and on snow showers are a good possibility through Sunday.

LONG RANGE: As we get past the weekend, the long range actually is rather quiet, which contradicts the title; however, the kicker is towards the end of the long-range, around the end of the first week in March. The GFS has been showing a rather large system developing for several days now. It seems like it's quite a ways out, however people are forgetting the 1st is on Monday, so in reality we would start to forecast this storm around mid to late next week. For now it's too early to tell, but it looks like a heavy snow event for Michigan is not out of the question. My first guess on this would be a storm that surges warm air into it, bringing heavy rain which would melt most of the snow. Followed by the round of rain would be a change over to snow which would cause most of the rain to freeze, then accumulate snow on top of all of that. We saw a similar storm like this a few years ago.

Overall, it's early, but we'll continue to watch it and it's worth mentioning at this point. If we see any huge changes like the storm completely disappearing out of the forecast, it will be noted.

WED UPDATE: Light snow for now, no storms in sight

Our weather will stay relatively quiet, much like it has been all winter long across our area. We'll see snow showers over the next several days and into the weekend as many short wave disturbances pass through our area. Lack of moisture and convergence means it will all be light with little accumulation.

LONG RANGE: Looks pretty quiet for the next two weeks. No big storms in sight for our area, however, a few systems will pass to our south and east, giving the Mid-Atlantic and East Coast states a chance of several feet of snow, again.

Much of Mid-Michigan is below-normal on seasonal snowfall, and it looks like we'll stay that way as we'll likely see temps warm up before we see any large storms, however, we'll have to keep an eye on the models as things can and will likely change.

Sunday Update: Final thoughts on incoming Winter Storm

It looks like the models have spoken, and the track moved slightly southeast of the previous runs, meaning the heaviest snow will most likely fall between I-94 and I-96. Snow is overspreading the area at the moment, and the snow will become moderate to heavy overnight. It looks like the heavier snow will reach further north into our viewing area towards or just before daybreak.

I would expect most school wills stay open tomorrow, however, maybe schools may close early as the drive home will likely be horrible, as snow will last through noon tomorrow, along with light snow showers throughout the day. Winds reaching 20+mph will also contribute to nasty road conditions, even after the storm passes.

Here's the final snow map; it's basically a now-cast now and we throw the models out. Anywhere from 0.40-1.00 QPF is expected across much of central-lower Michigan, with amounts closing in on 1.00 as your near Detroit.

Good luck out there and drive safe tomorrow!

Saturday Update: Michigan a bullseye for Winter Storm Sun/Mon

I wanted to post something brief before a much larger update later; but to go along and continue with this storm we've been watching, it looks like it will very well take aim on Michigan. After days of looking at the models, tons of flip-flopping, and a lot of experts saying there was no way it would take this path, it seems evident that a swath of 6-10" will fall somewhere in Michigan.

WSWs have already been issued from Colorado all the way to us in Michigan. GRR's watch reaches to Isabella County, but leaves the northern tier of counties out. DTX issued a watch earlier this evening for their entire viewing area. However, with that said, the next few runs of the models will surely paint a picture as to where exactly this storm is heading, as each run gets a better set of "real" data which will improve the accuracy. Many experts are now saying the NW trend will continue.

Another update coming later tonight after the 0z GFS run and the 0z NAM.

Friday Update: Storm or no storm early next week?

We've been closely watching the models over the past several days, and over the past 24 hrs they've seemed to come into more agreement. The GFS was way south, while the NAM was said to be too far north. Today, the GFS has pulled the LP north into Michigan, while the ECMWF and Canadian model have all started to agree with that.

So, in a nutshell, a few days ago it looked like little to no snow for Michigan, now it's starting to look like a huge snow storm, maybe the last one of the season, for much of lower-Michigan.

One thing that could change things is the sample of the models. The storm is still off the Pacific Coast, so the models really have been able to get an accurate sample with the upper-air for this system, which could change things. Needless to say, the next few runs will be extremely important and will likely show us where this system heads. Most of the NWS offices in our area haven't said much about it; actually, most have said it's going to go south, but with the GFS and NAM run this morning and afternoon, I expect them to change their AFD this evening.

More updates coming later, stay tuned.

Saturday Update: Quiet weather; stormy towards next weekend?

Our quiet weather pattern will hold in place for the rest of the weekend and much of the upcoming week as well.

We'll be a close miss for the system passing to our south, which has the chance to drop 6-8" of snow on parts of the Ohio Valley, and, once again, the eastern seaboard. We may see a dusting or up to an inch out of this system as some light moisture will lift into the state, but other than that, just some clouds for a few days.

At last check, 49 of the 50 US states have at least a dusting of snow. 67.1% of the US has snow, with an average depth of 8". Hawaii, being the only state without any snow.

Following the upcoming week, we're watching a system for late next week and into the weekend. All of the models are in an agreement that there will most likely be some type of system, but now it's just a matter of how strong, and where it will go. The Greenland High is playing a large role in our weather currently, but towards the end of the month, it looks to break down, which will mean more unsettled and milder weather. Should the high begin to breakdown sooner, we would see a more stormy pattern while we still have the cold temps, which would mean a chance for a few more winter storms.

We'll keep an eye on the models. Each GFS run is important and will really start to show patterns as we head into the next few days. Currently, the last few runs have taken it from a huge storm moving right into the Great Lakes, to a storm that goes way south and out into the Atlantic, followed by a run that takes it in the Ohio Valley before fizzling out into next to nothing.

That's all for CM-Weather tonight. Another update coming your way tomorrow evening.

Friday Update: Quiet weather, but how long will it last?

Our weather will stay fairly quiet for the next several days, after dealing with a decent sized storm system which dropped anywhere from 6-12" across much of the state earlier this week.

Current GFS models have shown a large system forming around next weekend. The track has been back and forth from a storm to the Great Lakes, to a storm running up the east coast. Obviously we'll have to give it some time and watch the models for several days as the track will likely change.

Other than watching that system, things will be quiet for much of next week besides a few clippers that should pass well to our south.

More updates to come last this weekend. We'll be keeping close eye on the models for the next several days.

Wednesday Update: Snowstorm of the year leaves Michigan

The possibly largest storm of the season is finally out of Michigan, late this Wednesday afternoon. The system blanked much of southern-lower Michigan with anywhere from 6-12", as forecasted by the Grand Rapids NWS Office.

Recap: Snow started early Tuesday morning and moved in from southwest to northeast throughout the morning hours. By 9am, most of Mid-Michigan was seeing moderate snowfall. Numbers by early Wednesday evening indicated anywhere from 2-5" across the area, with locally higher amounts reported further south near Lansing and Grand Rapids.

Through the evening we saw a brief break across Isabella, Midland, and Saginaw counties. Infact, the snow came to a complete stop for several hours. As the ULL and SL slowly moved closer to joining, the banding started taking place late last night. The strongest portion of the deformation band seemed to take place from a line from Lansing to just north of the Metro Detroit area into Oakland county. The band apparently strengthen as we headed towards and past midnight, and the Saginaw Valley was walloped with up to 8" in some spots just over night. The big winner so far is Saginaw reporting 12.5" just west of town. We're still waiting on official totals from the GRR NWS Office, but I'm assuming you will see totals surpass a foot near Grand Rapids and Kalamazoo.

One thing to thank for this storm is the strong thermodynamics that we saw set up in our atmosphere. Without the ULL and SL coming together overnight, we wouldn't have seen the strong deformation band form, and thus wouldn't have seen more than 2-5" out of this storm.

It is very clear where the band formed and where it disappated at. Once you get north of Bay County totals drop off very quickly. Infact, in northern Bay County only 3" was reported in Pinconning.

So, now the question that lies is will this have been our last storm of the season? We're heading into the halfway point of February so it is definetly possible, however, I think there is a good chance we will see one more good snowfall before Spring.

That's it for the afternoon update. I'll have a long-range outlook along with snow totals from GRR a bit later.

Sunday Night Update: Great Lakes "Winter Storm" of the Year

This is possibly the biggest storm the Great Lakes region will see this year. We've been snow deprived, especially in Michigan, and finally a system will inpact the southern lower peninsula pretty harshly beginning tomorrow.

We've been tracking the system for nearly a week now. What once was believed to be a storm that would be nothing, or just end up going to the east coast, slowly evolved into our storm, and tonight, most models are in pretty close agreement on the final track.

It's now a matter of now-casting. A widespread 6-12" snowfall amount will be possible for a large area of the Great Lakes. The further north you go, the less snow, however, the QPF will still hit a decent amount in Mid-Michigan, resulting in the chance for 5-9" of snow, and a Winter Storm warning which is in affect starting tomorrow morning and lasting til Wednesday afternoon.

This storm will last nearly 24 hrs and except many schools and even some colleges to delay or close school on Wednesday, as it will still be coming down at a decent clip Wednesday morning. Even once the snow slows down, the winds will still be around, ranging from 10-25mph, which will likely cause extensive blowing and drifting of the snow.

That's all folks! I'm headed to bed. Tomorrow should be an interesting day, especially to see how exactly this storm runs. Last minute changes are still possible, however, not likely. Drive safe if you have to drive tomorrow, and give yourself plenty of extra time for your Tuesday evening commute home, and your Wednesday morning commute.

More updates coming tomorrow afternoon!

Sunday Night Update: Early week Winter Storm path still uncertain

Overall the track is still a bit in the gray area at this point. Even though my thinking yesterday would be that we would know where this is going today, I have to say I disagree with what I had said before. I do, however, feel we have a better understand as opposed to yesterday.

I feel the general ending in this will be something inbetween the GFS and NAM. The NAM has been more west, the GFS has been more east.

Taking the GFS solution, the heaviest snow falls along the border of MI and OH/IN. Taking the NAM, the heaviest snow will likely fall into lower MI (Lansing, GRR, Pontiac, Saginaw Valley) with that being said, however, Detroit would still be in the 6-12" range with the NAM.

With the GFS solution much of Mid-MI gets robbed, and will probably only see 4-6".

A happy medium is likely, as the NAM has been trending, and the other models seem to be starting to ever so slightly agree.

Either way, tomorrow is the big day. After the 12z runs we'll have a great idea of where things will go, along with which model is correct and which is an outlier.

With this map:

Detroit: 6-12"
Lansing: 9-14"
Saginaw: 6-12"
Mount Pleasant: 6-9"
Houghton Lake: 3-6"
Toledo: 6-12"
Monroe: 6-12"
Chicago: 6-12+"
Port Huron: 6-12"

Overall, widespread 6-12" as the deformation band will likely be decently organized. Along with the duration of the storm (possibly lasting 24 hrs in spots) and the very high snow ratios (possibly reaching 20:1 at times) I would say 6-12" is not out of the question.

On a side note, props to GRR for takin care of business on this one. They have been nothing but legit over the past few days and swift with updates. DTX, also has done a fine job, however I think them not issuing a WSW when GRR did is a big error on their part. In one way it makes them look lazy and not understanding, and in another it makes GRR look like they're jumping the gun, neither of which I agree with, but I can imagine what other people out there are thinking.

Either way, the WSW's up for the GRR area will all likely reach criteria, and based on the trend tomorrow, may be extended to the northern tier counties in their viewing area. DTX will issue tomorrow as well. I suspect they think something in between the GFS and NAM will happen as they have lowered their snow amounts down to 3-7" for much of the area, as they seem to think a little bit heavier of snow will fall slightly north of the Metro Detroit area.

Gl everyone!

Sunday Headline: Snow on the way, but how much?

As mentioned yesterday a powerful winter storm will be heading for our region for the early parts of this week. Even today, the track and intensity of the system is still "to be announced" as models have been making last second changes since the NAM runs early this morning.

For now, it looks like the heaviest snow will stay in southern-lower Michigan, and along the Indiana/Ohio/MI border. However, any shift in the track will greatly influence the overall storm totals.

Winter Storm watches/warnings have been posted from Colorado all the way to Pennslyvania. As of now, DTX and GRR have yet to post any advisories or watches. I would say those will probably go up this evening, sometime.

I generally believe there is still a possibility of a northward shift of the system once it gets closer to the great lakes, however, the models haven't really trended for that (besides the NAM, which Is believed to be the outlier) so we'll just have to wait and see what the spit out for the rest of the day.

The map above is a prelim map (1PM Sunday) and is subject to change over the next 12-24 hrs. The Saginaw Valley will still likely see a decent snowfall out of this. I think they stand about a 75% chance of seeing 6-10". North of Saginaw, as you get up through Bay City, Mount Pleasant, and Clare, amounts will shorten a bit, but 4-8" is still not out of question based on the QPF amounts (showing anywhere from 0.30-0.65 QPF) and the high snow ratios we will be expecting, which could reach or exceed 20:1 snow-to-water.

Expect an update later tonight!

It's Been a While; Large storm to affect Midwest/East Coast this week

Hi everyone! To start off, it's been a while since I posted. When I made this blog, I told myself I would update every day, even when the weather was boring. However, my free time got shortened, and, well, the weather HAS been extremely boring, at least in the Great Lakes area.

First, to recap the past few weeks.

Overall, quiet. No large snowfalls besides a few dustings or 1-2" events. A huge system passed to our south and east just recently, and hammered the east coast, breaking some records and definitely getting close to breaking records in many locations. A lot of places saw over 2 feet of snow!

Just forward to the present, and, we've got a decent sized system finally heading our way. The streams have adjusted a little which is causing this system to actually make it a bit north. Thankfully, we will get a good amount of snow out of this before the system phases and ships the energy to the east coast, where they will likely get walloped again (not as hard as this system though)

Ratios are expected to reach and exceed 20:1 in many locations across the Plains and Great Lakes. The exact track of the system is still to be determined, however the trend has taken the low up near northwest Ohio. The NAM seems to be the outlier with this system, however, this will likely change over the next 24-48 hours.

As it stands for Michigan, the heaviest snow will fall along and south of I-96. Points north still will likely see near 6" of snow. Like I said in the last paragraph though, any adjustments to the track can greatly improve or hinder the snowfall totals. If this moves further south, much of the MID-MI will likely miss out on a large snowfall, however, if it moves further west/north, this snowfall amounts will raise for much of MID-MI. It will all depend on how and where the deformation band forms, and where the dry slot moves in.

We'll call it good for now and watch the models overnight and into tomorrow. Hopefully after 12z tomorrow we will have a good handle on where it's heading. Either way this goes, expect some treacherous travel for this early parts of this upcoming work week. Blizzard like conditions are definitely a possibility with this storm.