Friday Update: Storm or no storm early next week?

We've been closely watching the models over the past several days, and over the past 24 hrs they've seemed to come into more agreement. The GFS was way south, while the NAM was said to be too far north. Today, the GFS has pulled the LP north into Michigan, while the ECMWF and Canadian model have all started to agree with that.

So, in a nutshell, a few days ago it looked like little to no snow for Michigan, now it's starting to look like a huge snow storm, maybe the last one of the season, for much of lower-Michigan.

One thing that could change things is the sample of the models. The storm is still off the Pacific Coast, so the models really have been able to get an accurate sample with the upper-air for this system, which could change things. Needless to say, the next few runs will be extremely important and will likely show us where this system heads. Most of the NWS offices in our area haven't said much about it; actually, most have said it's going to go south, but with the GFS and NAM run this morning and afternoon, I expect them to change their AFD this evening.

More updates coming later, stay tuned.