Sunday Headline: Snow on the way, but how much?

As mentioned yesterday a powerful winter storm will be heading for our region for the early parts of this week. Even today, the track and intensity of the system is still "to be announced" as models have been making last second changes since the NAM runs early this morning.

For now, it looks like the heaviest snow will stay in southern-lower Michigan, and along the Indiana/Ohio/MI border. However, any shift in the track will greatly influence the overall storm totals.

Winter Storm watches/warnings have been posted from Colorado all the way to Pennslyvania. As of now, DTX and GRR have yet to post any advisories or watches. I would say those will probably go up this evening, sometime.

I generally believe there is still a possibility of a northward shift of the system once it gets closer to the great lakes, however, the models haven't really trended for that (besides the NAM, which Is believed to be the outlier) so we'll just have to wait and see what the spit out for the rest of the day.

The map above is a prelim map (1PM Sunday) and is subject to change over the next 12-24 hrs. The Saginaw Valley will still likely see a decent snowfall out of this. I think they stand about a 75% chance of seeing 6-10". North of Saginaw, as you get up through Bay City, Mount Pleasant, and Clare, amounts will shorten a bit, but 4-8" is still not out of question based on the QPF amounts (showing anywhere from 0.30-0.65 QPF) and the high snow ratios we will be expecting, which could reach or exceed 20:1 snow-to-water.

Expect an update later tonight!