Sunday Night Update: Early week Winter Storm path still uncertain

Overall the track is still a bit in the gray area at this point. Even though my thinking yesterday would be that we would know where this is going today, I have to say I disagree with what I had said before. I do, however, feel we have a better understand as opposed to yesterday.

I feel the general ending in this will be something inbetween the GFS and NAM. The NAM has been more west, the GFS has been more east.

Taking the GFS solution, the heaviest snow falls along the border of MI and OH/IN. Taking the NAM, the heaviest snow will likely fall into lower MI (Lansing, GRR, Pontiac, Saginaw Valley) with that being said, however, Detroit would still be in the 6-12" range with the NAM.

With the GFS solution much of Mid-MI gets robbed, and will probably only see 4-6".

A happy medium is likely, as the NAM has been trending, and the other models seem to be starting to ever so slightly agree.

Either way, tomorrow is the big day. After the 12z runs we'll have a great idea of where things will go, along with which model is correct and which is an outlier.

With this map:

Detroit: 6-12"
Lansing: 9-14"
Saginaw: 6-12"
Mount Pleasant: 6-9"
Houghton Lake: 3-6"
Toledo: 6-12"
Monroe: 6-12"
Chicago: 6-12+"
Port Huron: 6-12"

Overall, widespread 6-12" as the deformation band will likely be decently organized. Along with the duration of the storm (possibly lasting 24 hrs in spots) and the very high snow ratios (possibly reaching 20:1 at times) I would say 6-12" is not out of the question.

On a side note, props to GRR for takin care of business on this one. They have been nothing but legit over the past few days and swift with updates. DTX, also has done a fine job, however I think them not issuing a WSW when GRR did is a big error on their part. In one way it makes them look lazy and not understanding, and in another it makes GRR look like they're jumping the gun, neither of which I agree with, but I can imagine what other people out there are thinking.

Either way, the WSW's up for the GRR area will all likely reach criteria, and based on the trend tomorrow, may be extended to the northern tier counties in their viewing area. DTX will issue tomorrow as well. I suspect they think something in between the GFS and NAM will happen as they have lowered their snow amounts down to 3-7" for much of the area, as they seem to think a little bit heavier of snow will fall slightly north of the Metro Detroit area.

Gl everyone!