Central Michigan Weather

Huge Storm! Blizzard like conditions through Monday for much of the state

2010-12-11T18:59:00.000-08:00

A huge winter storm is heading straight for Central Michigan.

We've been following the models on this system for well over a week, and after several path changes here and there, it looks like this low will track somewhere along the border of Indiana/Michigan, Ohio/Michigan.

The current problem with this system is the warm temps that are in place, however, do not fear, because the temps should begin to quickly fall over the next several hours, and the phasing of the two lows over Illinois and Iowa has begun to fill in the dry slot to our south.

THE FORECAST: The heaviest snow will move in early Sunday morning and last throughout much of the day and into Sunday night. Some areas could see snowfall rates approaching 1.5"/hour. Once the snow lets up, we will, unfortunately, not be finished, as the winds will kick up, ranging from 20-30MPH, and gusts as high as 45MPH, creating near blizzard/blizzard like conditions. I even expect some counties to be upgraded to Blizzard warnings tomorrow.

TRAVEL INFO: Travel for much of Sunday, and even into Monday morning will be very, very treacherous. Nearly 60% of the highways in Iowa have been completely shut down by this storm, and several counties out there are issuing Civil Emergency messages stating to not leave your home unless it is a complete emergency - I've even see one county post that they will not be sending out any emergency personnel unless there are injuries - do I expect it to get that bad here? I'm not completely sure, but I would completely advise against traveling tomorrow, especially in the afternoon and evening hours as the winds really start to kick up.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK: Once this system moves through, we'll be in for some very bitterly cold air for the next several days. Temps in the teens and single digits are certainly possible, with wind chills going below zero. We will get away from the snow for a bit, but later into next week we look at another shot at snow as another system approaches.

Huge storm on the way for this weekend?

2010-12-07T01:01:00.000-08:00

The models have been blowing up with an enormous storm that will sweep across the nation later this week, and finally arriving in the Great Lakes region sometime over the weekend.

The GFS has been trending back and forth in a ton of different directions, first taking it to the coast, then taking the low track further west, and now in the most recent runs, it's someplace in between.

The storm should come ashore on Wednesday, which will finally give the computers a full sample, giving the output data a better, more consistent look.

We'll have to keep a close eye on this storm. If everything plays out, it will end up being our first big snowstorm of the season, and it could be huge. Preliminary ideas are showing a ton of moisture, with strong winds and cold temps on the backside, which would likely mean blizzard like conditions.

Stay tuned for further updates throughout the week.

Winter is back, and so is this blog!

2010-11-18T11:31:00.000-08:00

It's been a while since I've made a post here. I'm just not active with the weather, or at least blogging about the weather, when it's not snowing.

To catch up; it was a great Summer in Michigan. Very mild, above normal temperatures. Precip varied throughout the Great Lakes, and we lacked strong storms, but still saw several days where a passing shower would roll through.

So what's next? Let's just ahead to the present. Thanksgiving is on the way next week, and though the weather recently has been pretty bland, it's looking more and more possible that a decent storm will develop, and affect either the Midwest, Northeast, or both. Currently, the GFS keeps flip-flopping between several different solutions, so, it's too early to tell.

We'll keep this updated throughout the weekend. Snow, rain, mix, and ice is all possible with this system; now it will just be a matter of how much cold air wraps into this.

Sunny and warm weekend; rain returns Monday

2010-05-14T14:56:00.000-07:00

Quiet weather will last through the weekend after a soaking rain on Thursday, which dropped 1-2" of rain on most of Mid-Michigan.

The weekend will stay quiet with temps reaching the low 70s (upper 60s near the lake) and plenty of sunshine.

As we head into next week, however, rain will return for Monday and into early Tuesday. The low looks like it will past just south of us, so Mid-Michigan may miss much of the heavy rain, but that' could change, and either way it look like we'll see at best cloudy conditions and some showers. Following the brief rain early in the week, we look at a warm up lasting through next week and even into the following week as we look to stick in the 70s and even hitting the 80s by the following week.

Enjoy the weekend!

Strong storms possible overnight

2010-04-06T16:59:00.000-07:00

A strong cold front is making it's way across the Plains today, and with it, it will being strong thunderstorms and even the chance for Tornadoes. We should miss most of the worst part of it due to cooler tempuratures, however, strong to severe storms are still possible overnight.

Storms are likely throughout the overnight, and will bring with them the potential for strong winds, heavy rain, and hail.

So, what is the reason for all of these storms at this time in the year? Well, we have a perfect set up with the dynamics, and with a strong cold front clashing with a lot of warm, humid air, you end up with quite a bit of instability. As you head into Michigan, the storms are expected to be less severe due to cooler tempertures, but as stated above, anything is possible so I would try to keep yourself posted through the overnight.

The worst places hit with this system will be back to our south and west. Tornado watches and Severe T-Storm watches are posted across numerous states, with the strongest storms currently being in Iowa, Kansas, and Missouri, pushing north and eastward.

As the front moves by, temps will drop over the next several days, but will warm up by the weekend. More updates to come tomorrow.

Mild temps to continue thru Wednesday

2010-04-04T11:52:00.000-07:00

The CM-Weather Blog is officially back! I had some really busy weeks and just didn't have the time to post, along with the fact that the weather has been really boring.

As most have noticed, winter is basically over. All of those wishes of a decent snowstorm have come and gone. Now, mild air has filtered in and the past week or two have been extremely nice.

The mild weather looks to continue into this week, as temps will range from the mid-60s to low-70s, with slightly cooler readings near the lake shores.

The much needed rain that we saw yesterday was definetley welcome to the area. It helped lower our fire-danger risk, and will help the grass, flowers, and trees sprout.

More rain is one the way as we head into the middle part of the week. By Tuesday night, a pretty organized system will be heading towards the GL Region. With it, we'll see our first chance for strong to severe T-Storms.

Extended Outlook (subject to change*):

MONDAY: High 70 F - Partly Sunny and Warm
TUESDAY: High 72 F - Afternoon T-Storms possible
WEDNESDAY: High 60 F - Cooler with showers possible, otherwise cloudy
THURSDAY: High 48 F - Much cooler; Mostly Sunny
FRIDAY: High 46 F - Mostly Sunny and cooler

Winter over? Quiet, warm weather into the weekend

2010-03-16T14:13:00.000-07:00

Winter may finally be over for the Great Lakes. The past several days and even the past week and a half or so have been very mild. Highs today headed into the lower-mid 60s! It will stay nice through Friday, with highs in the upper 50s and lots of sun, but as we head to Friday night and Saturday, there is almost a guarantee of rain and cooler temps, dropping back into the 40s. It will be an all rain event for Chicago, Detroit, Mid-MI, but back further west into Kansas and Nebraska they could see one last shot at accumulating snow.

The long range is similar - quiet with no huge storms in sight. Next week will defineltey be cooler than this week, however, temps should stay stick around 40 with a few chances or rain towards the middle parts of the week.

Overall, I'd say our shot at anymore snow is gone. Infact, this week is going to be so nice that most golf courses plan on opening this weekend (and I'll be out there!!) so hopefully this nice weather sticks around and just continues to improve.

TUES UPDATE: Some rain this week, otherwise quiet weather

2010-03-09T01:26:00.000-08:00

All of the storms we've been watching the on the models have all but turned into almost nothing. The only system that will make of anything will be the low pressure heading towards the lakes towards the middle or end of the week.

We'll see on and off rain from Wednesday through Friday. Rain could be heavy at times, and up to 3/4 of an inch could fall over those few days.

Other than a few showers, we'll enjoy 50+ degree weather for the next several days. Into the weekend things quiet down a bit, and as we head on into next week things cool down a bit. A few more systems are showing up on the models but they are all day to day things that one day they're there, the next they're gone.

Stay tuned.

SATURDAY UPDATE: Quiet weekend, interesting next week

2010-03-06T00:30:00.000-08:00

We've been watching the models and nothing interesting has really been showing up in them. Looks like quiet weather through the weekend, and the storm for early this week will pass to the south of us, and likely leave us completely dry. The best thing about this system is the ridge that will be moving through; temps will rise into the mid and upper 40s for much of the weekend and most of the week.

Uncertainty comes into the long range outlook. The GFS has been showing numerous storms showing up for next week and the following, but hasn't been very consistant on where they will move. For example, the system setting up for this week was first forecasted to move well to the north through Wisconsin and bring heavy snow on the northwest side, and heavy rain for everyone else; now it looks like it will spin itself out and not be a factor. A second system which looked like it would be strong will likely pass well south of us and just be a smaller system with some light rain.

I would say winter is not over yet even though we're heading into the second week of March. We'll see warm temps for the next 7+ days, however a cold spell can come back for a brief period at any time which means snow could still happen. Much of the upper part of the state is way below normal, while the Metro Detroit area is within just inches of there normal average. And just to throw in a fun fact would just proves heavy snow can still fall in March (and even April!) Detroits heaviest snowfall of all time of nearly 2 ft of snow fell in early April!

SUNDAY UPDATE: Long Range thoughts

2010-02-28T17:13:00.000-08:00

Still watching the very long range, as model consistency is showing a storm sometime around late next weekend and into early next week. For now, it looks like there's a good chance for rain for much of the area, with some rap-around snow, but there's still a lot of time for the models to change, and they have been very inconsistent with the ending result of where the LP actually ends up going.

The GFS has been running it pretty quickly, and has been breaking down the high and ridge much quicker, which is the main cause of why it been pushing the LP so far west. The runs over the next 4-5 days will definitely start showing where the storm will go, and I would say there's a chance for anything yet.

FRIDAY UPDATE: Long Range getting interesting?

2010-02-26T17:25:00.000-08:00

We'll see light snow continue through the weekend as a huge storm system sits off to our east. That storm is responsible for dropping up to 3 ft of snow in parts of NY, NJ, and many other states. It's bad news for many cities which have seen up to 6 ft of snow in the past month, breaking tons of records.

Back towards our area the light snow will continue. Most spots have seen anywhere from 1-3" today, with another inch or so likely through the overnight and into tomorrow. For that reason, a Winter Weather Advisory has been posted for most of the GRR viewing area. The snow from today, along with light snow throughout the night and winds kicking up, will likely cause a rough commute for the morning. Off and on snow showers are a good possibility through Sunday.

LONG RANGE: As we get past the weekend, the long range actually is rather quiet, which contradicts the title; however, the kicker is towards the end of the long-range, around the end of the first week in March. The GFS has been showing a rather large system developing for several days now. It seems like it's quite a ways out, however people are forgetting the 1st is on Monday, so in reality we would start to forecast this storm around mid to late next week. For now it's too early to tell, but it looks like a heavy snow event for Michigan is not out of the question. My first guess on this would be a storm that surges warm air into it, bringing heavy rain which would melt most of the snow. Followed by the round of rain would be a change over to snow which would cause most of the rain to freeze, then accumulate snow on top of all of that. We saw a similar storm like this a few years ago.

Overall, it's early, but we'll continue to watch it and it's worth mentioning at this point. If we see any huge changes like the storm completely disappearing out of the forecast, it will be noted.

WED UPDATE: Light snow for now, no storms in sight

2010-02-24T17:23:00.000-08:00

Our weather will stay relatively quiet, much like it has been all winter long across our area. We'll see snow showers over the next several days and into the weekend as many short wave disturbances pass through our area. Lack of moisture and convergence means it will all be light with little accumulation.

LONG RANGE: Looks pretty quiet for the next two weeks. No big storms in sight for our area, however, a few systems will pass to our south and east, giving the Mid-Atlantic and East Coast states a chance of several feet of snow, again.

Much of Mid-Michigan is below-normal on seasonal snowfall, and it looks like we'll stay that way as we'll likely see temps warm up before we see any large storms, however, we'll have to keep an eye on the models as things can and will likely change.

Sunday Update: Final thoughts on incoming Winter Storm

2010-02-21T20:08:00.000-08:00

It looks like the models have spoken, and the track moved slightly southeast of the previous runs, meaning the heaviest snow will most likely fall between I-94 and I-96. Snow is overspreading the area at the moment, and the snow will become moderate to heavy overnight. It looks like the heavier snow will reach further north into our viewing area towards or just before daybreak.

I would expect most school wills stay open tomorrow, however, maybe schools may close early as the drive home will likely be horrible, as snow will last through noon tomorrow, along with light snow showers throughout the day. Winds reaching 20+mph will also contribute to nasty road conditions, even after the storm passes.

Here's the final snow map; it's basically a now-cast now and we throw the models out. Anywhere from 0.40-1.00 QPF is expected across much of central-lower Michigan, with amounts closing in on 1.00 as your near Detroit.

Good luck out there and drive safe tomorrow!

Saturday Update: Michigan a bullseye for Winter Storm Sun/Mon

2010-02-20T15:49:00.001-08:00

I wanted to post something brief before a much larger update later; but to go along and continue with this storm we've been watching, it looks like it will very well take aim on Michigan. After days of looking at the models, tons of flip-flopping, and a lot of experts saying there was no way it would take this path, it seems evident that a swath of 6-10" will fall somewhere in Michigan.

WSWs have already been issued from Colorado all the way to us in Michigan. GRR's watch reaches to Isabella County, but leaves the northern tier of counties out. DTX issued a watch earlier this evening for their entire viewing area. However, with that said, the next few runs of the models will surely paint a picture as to where exactly this storm is heading, as each run gets a better set of "real" data which will improve the accuracy. Many experts are now saying the NW trend will continue.

Another update coming later tonight after the 0z GFS run and the 0z NAM.

Friday Update: Storm or no storm early next week?

2010-02-19T11:33:00.001-08:00

We've been closely watching the models over the past several days, and over the past 24 hrs they've seemed to come into more agreement. The GFS was way south, while the NAM was said to be too far north. Today, the GFS has pulled the LP north into Michigan, while the ECMWF and Canadian model have all started to agree with that.

So, in a nutshell, a few days ago it looked like little to no snow for Michigan, now it's starting to look like a huge snow storm, maybe the last one of the season, for much of lower-Michigan.

One thing that could change things is the sample of the models. The storm is still off the Pacific Coast, so the models really have been able to get an accurate sample with the upper-air for this system, which could change things. Needless to say, the next few runs will be extremely important and will likely show us where this system heads. Most of the NWS offices in our area haven't said much about it; actually, most have said it's going to go south, but with the GFS and NAM run this morning and afternoon, I expect them to change their AFD this evening.

More updates coming later, stay tuned.

Saturday Update: Quiet weather; stormy towards next weekend?

2010-02-13T20:41:00.000-08:00

Our quiet weather pattern will hold in place for the rest of the weekend and much of the upcoming week as well.

We'll be a close miss for the system passing to our south, which has the chance to drop 6-8" of snow on parts of the Ohio Valley, and, once again, the eastern seaboard. We may see a dusting or up to an inch out of this system as some light moisture will lift into the state, but other than that, just some clouds for a few days.

At last check, 49 of the 50 US states have at least a dusting of snow. 67.1% of the US has snow, with an average depth of 8". Hawaii, being the only state without any snow.

Following the upcoming week, we're watching a system for late next week and into the weekend. All of the models are in an agreement that there will most likely be some type of system, but now it's just a matter of how strong, and where it will go. The Greenland High is playing a large role in our weather currently, but towards the end of the month, it looks to break down, which will mean more unsettled and milder weather. Should the high begin to breakdown sooner, we would see a more stormy pattern while we still have the cold temps, which would mean a chance for a few more winter storms.

We'll keep an eye on the models. Each GFS run is important and will really start to show patterns as we head into the next few days. Currently, the last few runs have taken it from a huge storm moving right into the Great Lakes, to a storm that goes way south and out into the Atlantic, followed by a run that takes it in the Ohio Valley before fizzling out into next to nothing.

That's all for CM-Weather tonight. Another update coming your way tomorrow evening.

Friday Update: Quiet weather, but how long will it last?

2010-02-12T12:38:00.000-08:00

Our weather will stay fairly quiet for the next several days, after dealing with a decent sized storm system which dropped anywhere from 6-12" across much of the state earlier this week.

Current GFS models have shown a large system forming around next weekend. The track has been back and forth from a storm to the Great Lakes, to a storm running up the east coast. Obviously we'll have to give it some time and watch the models for several days as the track will likely change.

Other than watching that system, things will be quiet for much of next week besides a few clippers that should pass well to our south.

More updates to come last this weekend. We'll be keeping close eye on the models for the next several days.

Wednesday Update: Snowstorm of the year leaves Michigan

2010-02-10T11:20:00.001-08:00

The possibly largest storm of the season is finally out of Michigan, late this Wednesday afternoon. The system blanked much of southern-lower Michigan with anywhere from 6-12", as forecasted by the Grand Rapids NWS Office.

Recap: Snow started early Tuesday morning and moved in from southwest to northeast throughout the morning hours. By 9am, most of Mid-Michigan was seeing moderate snowfall. Numbers by early Wednesday evening indicated anywhere from 2-5" across the area, with locally higher amounts reported further south near Lansing and Grand Rapids.

Through the evening we saw a brief break across Isabella, Midland, and Saginaw counties. Infact, the snow came to a complete stop for several hours. As the ULL and SL slowly moved closer to joining, the banding started taking place late last night. The strongest portion of the deformation band seemed to take place from a line from Lansing to just north of the Metro Detroit area into Oakland county. The band apparently strengthen as we headed towards and past midnight, and the Saginaw Valley was walloped with up to 8" in some spots just over night. The big winner so far is Saginaw reporting 12.5" just west of town. We're still waiting on official totals from the GRR NWS Office, but I'm assuming you will see totals surpass a foot near Grand Rapids and Kalamazoo.

One thing to thank for this storm is the strong thermodynamics that we saw set up in our atmosphere. Without the ULL and SL coming together overnight, we wouldn't have seen the strong deformation band form, and thus wouldn't have seen more than 2-5" out of this storm.

It is very clear where the band formed and where it disappated at. Once you get north of Bay County totals drop off very quickly. Infact, in northern Bay County only 3" was reported in Pinconning.

So, now the question that lies is will this have been our last storm of the season? We're heading into the halfway point of February so it is definetly possible, however, I think there is a good chance we will see one more good snowfall before Spring.

That's it for the afternoon update. I'll have a long-range outlook along with snow totals from GRR a bit later.

Sunday Night Update: Great Lakes "Winter Storm" of the Year

2010-02-08T20:57:00.000-08:00

This is possibly the biggest storm the Great Lakes region will see this year. We've been snow deprived, especially in Michigan, and finally a system will inpact the southern lower peninsula pretty harshly beginning tomorrow.

We've been tracking the system for nearly a week now. What once was believed to be a storm that would be nothing, or just end up going to the east coast, slowly evolved into our storm, and tonight, most models are in pretty close agreement on the final track.

It's now a matter of now-casting. A widespread 6-12" snowfall amount will be possible for a large area of the Great Lakes. The further north you go, the less snow, however, the QPF will still hit a decent amount in Mid-Michigan, resulting in the chance for 5-9" of snow, and a Winter Storm warning which is in affect starting tomorrow morning and lasting til Wednesday afternoon.

This storm will last nearly 24 hrs and except many schools and even some colleges to delay or close school on Wednesday, as it will still be coming down at a decent clip Wednesday morning. Even once the snow slows down, the winds will still be around, ranging from 10-25mph, which will likely cause extensive blowing and drifting of the snow.

That's all folks! I'm headed to bed. Tomorrow should be an interesting day, especially to see how exactly this storm runs. Last minute changes are still possible, however, not likely. Drive safe if you have to drive tomorrow, and give yourself plenty of extra time for your Tuesday evening commute home, and your Wednesday morning commute.

More updates coming tomorrow afternoon!

Sunday Night Update: Early week Winter Storm path still uncertain

2010-02-07T21:48:00.001-08:00

Overall the track is still a bit in the gray area at this point. Even though my thinking yesterday would be that we would know where this is going today, I have to say I disagree with what I had said before. I do, however, feel we have a better understand as opposed to yesterday.

I feel the general ending in this will be something inbetween the GFS and NAM. The NAM has been more west, the GFS has been more east.

Taking the GFS solution, the heaviest snow falls along the border of MI and OH/IN. Taking the NAM, the heaviest snow will likely fall into lower MI (Lansing, GRR, Pontiac, Saginaw Valley) with that being said, however, Detroit would still be in the 6-12" range with the NAM.

With the GFS solution much of Mid-MI gets robbed, and will probably only see 4-6".

A happy medium is likely, as the NAM has been trending, and the other models seem to be starting to ever so slightly agree.

Either way, tomorrow is the big day. After the 12z runs we'll have a great idea of where things will go, along with which model is correct and which is an outlier.

With this map:

Detroit: 6-12"
Lansing: 9-14"
Saginaw: 6-12"
Mount Pleasant: 6-9"
Houghton Lake: 3-6"
Toledo: 6-12"
Monroe: 6-12"
Chicago: 6-12+"
Port Huron: 6-12"

Overall, widespread 6-12" as the deformation band will likely be decently organized. Along with the duration of the storm (possibly lasting 24 hrs in spots) and the very high snow ratios (possibly reaching 20:1 at times) I would say 6-12" is not out of the question.

On a side note, props to GRR for takin care of business on this one. They have been nothing but legit over the past few days and swift with updates. DTX, also has done a fine job, however I think them not issuing a WSW when GRR did is a big error on their part. In one way it makes them look lazy and not understanding, and in another it makes GRR look like they're jumping the gun, neither of which I agree with, but I can imagine what other people out there are thinking.

Either way, the WSW's up for the GRR area will all likely reach criteria, and based on the trend tomorrow, may be extended to the northern tier counties in their viewing area. DTX will issue tomorrow as well. I suspect they think something in between the GFS and NAM will happen as they have lowered their snow amounts down to 3-7" for much of the area, as they seem to think a little bit heavier of snow will fall slightly north of the Metro Detroit area.

Gl everyone!

Sunday Headline: Snow on the way, but how much?

2010-02-07T12:18:00.001-08:00

As mentioned yesterday a powerful winter storm will be heading for our region for the early parts of this week. Even today, the track and intensity of the system is still "to be announced" as models have been making last second changes since the NAM runs early this morning.

For now, it looks like the heaviest snow will stay in southern-lower Michigan, and along the Indiana/Ohio/MI border. However, any shift in the track will greatly influence the overall storm totals.

Winter Storm watches/warnings have been posted from Colorado all the way to Pennslyvania. As of now, DTX and GRR have yet to post any advisories or watches. I would say those will probably go up this evening, sometime.

I generally believe there is still a possibility of a northward shift of the system once it gets closer to the great lakes, however, the models haven't really trended for that (besides the NAM, which Is believed to be the outlier) so we'll just have to wait and see what the spit out for the rest of the day.

The map above is a prelim map (1PM Sunday) and is subject to change over the next 12-24 hrs. The Saginaw Valley will still likely see a decent snowfall out of this. I think they stand about a 75% chance of seeing 6-10". North of Saginaw, as you get up through Bay City, Mount Pleasant, and Clare, amounts will shorten a bit, but 4-8" is still not out of question based on the QPF amounts (showing anywhere from 0.30-0.65 QPF) and the high snow ratios we will be expecting, which could reach or exceed 20:1 snow-to-water.

Expect an update later tonight!

It's Been a While; Large storm to affect Midwest/East Coast this week

2010-02-06T21:41:00.000-08:00

Hi everyone! To start off, it's been a while since I posted. When I made this blog, I told myself I would update every day, even when the weather was boring. However, my free time got shortened, and, well, the weather HAS been extremely boring, at least in the Great Lakes area.

First, to recap the past few weeks.

Overall, quiet. No large snowfalls besides a few dustings or 1-2" events. A huge system passed to our south and east just recently, and hammered the east coast, breaking some records and definitely getting close to breaking records in many locations. A lot of places saw over 2 feet of snow!

Just forward to the present, and, we've got a decent sized system finally heading our way. The streams have adjusted a little which is causing this system to actually make it a bit north. Thankfully, we will get a good amount of snow out of this before the system phases and ships the energy to the east coast, where they will likely get walloped again (not as hard as this system though)

Ratios are expected to reach and exceed 20:1 in many locations across the Plains and Great Lakes. The exact track of the system is still to be determined, however the trend has taken the low up near northwest Ohio. The NAM seems to be the outlier with this system, however, this will likely change over the next 24-48 hours.

As it stands for Michigan, the heaviest snow will fall along and south of I-96. Points north still will likely see near 6" of snow. Like I said in the last paragraph though, any adjustments to the track can greatly improve or hinder the snowfall totals. If this moves further south, much of the MID-MI will likely miss out on a large snowfall, however, if it moves further west/north, this snowfall amounts will raise for much of MID-MI. It will all depend on how and where the deformation band forms, and where the dry slot moves in.

We'll call it good for now and watch the models overnight and into tomorrow. Hopefully after 12z tomorrow we will have a good handle on where it's heading. Either way this goes, expect some treacherous travel for this early parts of this upcoming work week. Blizzard like conditions are definitely a possibility with this storm.

Warm up and quiet weather on the way

2010-01-11T17:01:00.001-08:00

Our weather will see a significant warm up over the next several days. The northern stream is in a changing phase and things will take somewhat of a shift. We were watching a potentially large storm for this weekend, but the models have switched and it will probably be pushed off into the Atlantic due to cold air from Canada coming down.

As we head towards the end of the week, however, we will see a warm up. Temps could hit the 40s for several days which would mean most of our snow pack would melt and we could see a chance of rain.

After that the models show a few other systems. Whether they turn into anything or not is to be determined, so we'll have to wait and see.

Decent sized system to affect Michigan/GL tomorrow

2010-01-06T20:59:00.000-08:00

A fairly moderate storm system will affect much of the Midwest and Great Lakes tonight and all the way into Friday. The system doesn't have much QPF involved, however, snow ratios will be extremely high due to the bitter cold temperatures.

The map above shows expectations for our state. Chicagoland folks can expect upwards of 10" of snow due to lake enhancement to the storm. Much of the Ohio Valley will get a long overdue shot of snow also, with amounts around 2-4" expected.

Our next major system will be towards the end of next week. Models are showing a fairly strong system forming and moving somewhere up along the east coast of into the Great Lakes.

All in all, stay safe out there tomorrow and take it easy as roads will likely become slick from around noon, on into Friday afternoon.

Light snow over next few days; otherwise quiet weather

2009-12-30T20:24:00.000-08:00

The pattern for Michigan will remain quiet for the most part. Most locations will see light snow over the next couple days due to a system passing to our southeast. The models tend to be in agreement that a relatively strong low will shift off to the east coast bringing them a decent snowfall for some areas.

As this system misses us, we'll return to the models and look towards next week. There's a chance of accumulating snow with at least two more systems in the next week or two, however, its' too far out to tell where they'll go to. For the time being the GFS and GFS Ensembles are taking them off the east coast, but, there's plenty of time for that to change.

We'll keep you posted with the next few chances for snow as the next several days go by.

Merry Christmas! Quiet weather moving our way

2009-12-26T01:17:00.000-08:00

It's been an eventful past few days and with Christmas and all kinds of stuff going on, I apologize for the lack of updating.

Overall Michigan was spared by this system. We had a brief period of freezing rain to the north, which melted fairly quickly as temps rose fairly fast as we headed into the afternoon. The rain poured for much of the day, especially in the Metro Detroit area.

However, not everyone was spared.

The Midwest was slammed hard with blizzard-like conditions. Over a foot of snow fell in numerous locations and portions of I-90 were closed for much of the day. Thousands lost power on account of both the snow and ice.

Thankfully, the system is all but over now. Some light wrap-around snow is expected for Mid-Michigan, while back west blowing snow will be a problem for the next day or so, but as far as additional accumulation, it is unlikely.

A Winter WX Advisory has been posted by GRR for the overnight, as there is the chance for light freezing drizzle and light snow which may slicken up the roadways.

Overall we will move into a fairly quiet period as we head into the next several days. High pressure will take over, however as we head into the middle of the week we can expect another shot at a large storm. The models are taking it well east of us, and possibly up the Appalachians. As far as I'm concerned I believe it's way too far out to tell right now, and it won't be for another few days before we get a handle on this. Remember, the past two storms have shifted a great deal north and west. However, the amount of phasing that occurs in this system will play a big role on where it goes.

Happy Holidays everyone, look for more updates tomorrow.

Christmas storm a dud for much of Michigan

2009-12-22T01:45:00.000-08:00

For all of those hoping and expecting a white Christmas for Michigan, well, you can quit hoping. The current storm we've been tracking for about a week now has finally made a decision on the track.

We've nailed this down for the most part. The low will end up moving west, even west of Chicago. For the most part, this was a giant fail, but, is this a sign of things to come? Will much of the rest of the winter season bring storm and storm after this? Will the Detroit area ever get a decent snowfall? Of course, all of those questions cannot be answered, because the only correct forecast is...well, there is no correct forecast, so we can only use our best judgment from the models and trends and see what comes from them.

So, let's break down this storm.

Detroit will see mostly rain. You'll start out with snow or a brief mix, then quickly change over to a chilly rain. On the back side of the system, an inch or dusting is possible, but for the most part, it will be a rainy Christmas holiday.

Chicago, well, there's more potential. It won't be a complete washout, however, some people might wake up Christmas morning and find their streets and sidewalks to be more like ice rinks. A mix bag of precip is expected, with a period of ice, which could accumulate up to 0.25"

Points west of Chicago, like into Iowa and Nebraska, will see all snow, infact, they will see blizzard like conditions for much of the storm. If you have any plans to travel to the Midwest, be sure to call ahead to your airliner, because there is a pretty good chance a lot of flights will be delayed.

The system still has the chance to make minor shifts, however, any major shifts are pretty much out of the picture, even though the storm is still a couple days out.

Join us again tomorrow. We'll talk more about this storm and try to nail down accumulations and get into talk about the long-term forecast past this system, so hopefully much of us Michiganders can see some snow in the next couple weeks.

Powerful storm to affect Midwest near Christmas

2009-12-20T17:25:00.001-08:00

The powerful storm we've been watching has finally chosen a solution; and it's west. Rather than the east coast runner like the models were showing for several days, the models have all decided it will take a track through, or near, Chicago. This means mostly rain for Detroit and the eastern subarbs of Chicago. On the west side of the storm, a mix, ice, and heavy snow will be possible. Much of mid and northern Michigan will also stay all rain as the low will track up through Lake Superior.

We're still watching the models as there is still the possibility of another shift, either further west or east, and the next few runs of the GFS and then the NAM tomorrow, will be the outlier for where the system ends up.

At this time it is too early to call on what kind of snow accumulations will take place, so we'll have to continue to monitor the situation as needed.

Note: The map posted is preliminary. This is based on the latest models and what they are showing. Being 4+ days out still, there is a likelihood of small shifts.

Quiet weekend; storm looming for Christmas?

2009-12-17T21:46:00.001-08:00

A relatively quiet weekend is on the way. Other than a few chances for light snow showers due to a weak low passing to our southeast, we'll be partly to mostly cloudy with temps sticking in the low 30s.

However, following the weekend we turn to next week, where we've been talking about a potential Christmas Snowstorm. Over the past several days, all of the computer models have hopped on bored showing a strong low pressure developing over the Mississippi Valley region, then heading anywhere from the east coast, to as far west as Minnesota. Over the past 24 hours the models have certainly jumped around, and at this point really anything can happen. It looks like the only guarantee at this point is that some place will end up having a white Christmas.

Many expert Meteorologists have already started to "guess" that this one is heading further east. History shows that the Midwest and Great Lakes sometimes lack late-December snow, and that a storm like this will tend to track east due to suppression starting later in the storm. Along with that, cold arctic air will be in place which could push the storm towards the east coast in the ridge digs enough.

Above is a suggestion of where this system may go. NOTE: This map is due to change, this is just a preliminary map, using combined knowledge of the GFS and GFS Ensembles; along with their latest shifts over the past 24 hours.

Quiet weather for several days

2009-12-15T13:41:00.000-08:00

Kind of a boring post today. Not a lot to talk about, as our weather will be pretty quiet for the next 7+ days. There will be a chance of snow showers for the next week, due to the winds whipping up every now and then off of Lake Michigan, but overall, no big snow events on the way. The cause of this is a large arctic high pressure system dropping down from Alaska. It has just moved into the plains and will reach Michigan by Friday. This is the main factor in cutting down on the lake effect snows. Also, our temperatures will linger in the 20s for the next several days. To the side is a preview of temps for Friday going into the weekend.

There is also very low confidence in the long range. A few short-wave lows will pass through the region, but will cause nothing but light lake effect snow showers into early next week. It looks like our next chance for any decent snowstorms won't come until near or just past Christmas.

Winter Weather Advisory North; light rain south

2009-12-14T10:59:00.000-08:00

A WWA has been posted for posting from Mount Pleasant north. Overall, the afternoon will be kind of a mess. We'll see light freezing drizzle in the advisory region, following by an inch or two of snow later tonight. To the south of the advisory, we'll see light rain/drizzle throughout the day. No icing is expected there because temps will stay above freezing for much of the afternoon and evening.

All in all, if you need to travel at all tonight, take it easy and allow yourself extra time to get from place to place.

After this small disturbance moves through, quiet weather will build in. The models still aren't showing much for the long term outlook. Our next chance for snow will be into late this weekend, and following that, into next week near Christmas Day. The GFS is showing an intense storm system forming which, currently, would roll through the plains and up the east coast. Obviously, this is a long way out so deciding on any solution for this storm is nearly impossible. We'll keep an eye on it throughout this week and hopefully by this weekend we will have a better handle on what will happen into next week.

Monday Night Snow Chance

2009-12-13T10:00:00.001-08:00

A weak disturbance will pass through the southern portion of the state Monday night and into Tuesday. This will bring us a brief chance for some snow. From about Isabella County north all the way into the UP, a chance of 1-2" of snow lingers, with isolated spots see 3" or 4". Only between 0.20-0.30 QPF is expected within this system, so using a normal 10:1 ratio, those are the totals we would be expecting.

Quiet weather moves in after Tuesday, while temps will remain in the mid 20s for much of the week. As of right now no big storms seem to be showing up, so, there's not much to talk about in todays update. As we head towards Christmas, we few systems are showing up on the GFS, but as of right now it's way too far out to tell if they'll turn into anything, so we'll just have to keep following and watching them.

Weak system to affect area tonight and tomorrow

2009-12-12T09:57:00.001-08:00

Overall, we won't be in too much of an active pattern over the next week. There will be a few weak disturbances that move through, but nothing too powerful and there is very low chance of accumulating snow over the next week.

Tonight, a upper level low will move across the southeastern portion of the station, causing a mixed bag of precip, including rain, freezing rain, a brief mix, and a chance of light snow. The Detroit area will primarily stay all rain, with a brief period of snow on the backside of the storm. Much of mid-Michigan will stay all snow, however, lack of advection and moisture being shot into this storm will keep snow totals very low. Temperatures being in the mid 30s won't help the cause either. At this time the NAM has brought the storm further south than the GFS, but it looks like it should pass through the Toledo area or just southeast of there.

As we move past the weekend and look into next week, there will be the chance of a few systems to move in. The track of these storms are all uncertain at this time, and it looks like our best shot for snow will be a clipper system later this week.

The GFS is hinting at a storm forming in the Gulf into next weekend, however, there are no signs currently that it will affect the area.

Stay tuned to the blog for daily updates of Central Michigan weather. Tomorrow, we'll look into the long-range models.

Storm Looming for late next week??

2009-12-11T19:01:00.000-08:00

Weather will be quiet for the most part across Mid-Michigan for the next week. Some short-wave disturbances do have a chance to make a run towards the Great Lakes, however, for the time being there isn't much evidence to show for any chance of a substantial winter storm.

Our next chance for snow/mix will be Sunday, as a weak wave of low pressure will track through southeastern lower Michigan. The GFS and NAM both pump out hardly any moisture with the storm, however, the NAM does show slightly more than the GFS. Ahead of the storm, some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will build in and advect, causing a warm layer of air. This most likely will lead to only rain or a mix for much of the area. Depending on the exact track of this system, some of Mid-MI could see only a few snow pellets or rain drops, so, the likelihood of any snow is very low. Temperatures will easily increase as we head into tonight and tomorrow, moving from the teens currently, to the lower 30's for tomorrow and the rest of the weekend.

Following this weak disturbance we look towards late next week when a Alberta Clipper will move into the Great Lakes. As of right now there is little confidence on this system, so, we'll just have to wait and see how it plays out.

Short and Long Term Outlook - December 10th

2009-12-10T15:14:00.000-08:00

The latest computers are not putting out the type of storm we possibly expected for late this weekend. A lack of moisture and phasing will most likely lead to only light snow across much of the viewing area, therefore our optimism level is down to a 2/10 for this storm.

Following that we will look into next week as the same pattern should be in place. We'll be keeping out eyes open on the models watching for any signs of additional storms. There is the chance sometime mid-next week that a upper level low will move it's way out of the western US. For now, only time will tell.

Recap of December 12th Midwest Blizzard

2009-12-09T21:47:00.001-08:00

As most already know, this was an epic storm. Some areas were hit hard as expected, some were spared. Overall, much of the immediate Mid-Michigan area was not in the worst part of this storm, seeing only around 4-8". The reason I note this as not being that bad, is because areas north and west saw upwards of a foot of snow. Reports from near Madison, WI came in stating they received nearly 17" of snow.

This storm was so strong mainly because of the flow between the northern and southern streams. This caused quite a bit of phasing which lead to a large influx of moisture into this storm. The tracking of this storm was the worst part. The uncertainty was still floating in the air come Monday night, but finally, the GFS and NAM both got on bored with a more westerly and northerly track. The crazy thing about this storm is that it's showing viewers that even the Meteorologists don't know exactly what to expect. Earlier in the week, the storm was actually being sent to the east coast on the models.

Detroit escaped with a brief period of snow, followed by mostly rain. The same was there for much of the greater Chicago area.

Even though the storm has moved well off to our east, we're not finished yet with snow. Areas near Lake Michigan and as far east as Lansing and the outside areas of the Metro Detroit area could see anywhere from 2-6" of additional snowfall tonight and into early tomorrow. Winds will be strong, and power outages will be possible, with gusts as high as 60mph, which will cause widespread blowing and drifting during much of the day tomorrow.

Travel is not advised; roads will and already are, becoming slick and icy. This will continue through much of the day on Thursday until Friday when things finally dry out some.

Then, our attention turns to late this weekend. The GFS and NAM are both hinting at a possible winter storm for the area once again. Models are currently showing the storm building in the south and running up the the east coast, but due to recent factors, the northern and southern stream along with high pressure building in the northern plains, may cause this storm to drift further north and east. Along with that, arctic air will already be in place which would cause another shift.

As of now, we'll put the optimism level at about a 5 on a scale of 10. The next few days will be crucial in determining where the system moves. Nevertheless, this proves that the first forecasts for this winter may have been wrong, and that many storms may ride up the Ohio Valley and affect areas further west, rather than the east coast.